Wednesday 23 April 2014

A FEW THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE REACT TO BUBBLE FEARS


It isn’t always easy being an economist.  It’s a bit like being a weatherman, in fact—a job wherein you’re stuck trying to predict the future and, like any mortal tasked with the impossible, so often failing and angering people in the process.  It simply isn’t possible to always call the coin right, and when there’s a chance you may well have called the coin wrong, you get an irate bunch of people clamoring for your head.
As such, it should come as no surprise that, amidst talk of “bubble fears” in the market, there have been some rather vocal backlashes and a strong degree of dissent.  Why is that?  Well, for one thing, housing prices have been soaring—markedly so, in fact.  To February, an absolutely astounding 9.1% rise in house prices has been recorded.  It’s enough to make any landlord excited and any first-time buyer contrite.
But how should you really be reacting?  What’s a fairer view of things?  Here are just a few things to keep in mind with regards to these latest reports.

  1. The Past: To be fair, a lot of the backlash that’s resulted from these descriptions may well be founded in a remembrance of where we were in the credit crunch days and a strong desire to never go back to that again.  And why would we want to?  It was absolutely dreadful, whether you were a landlord or a homeowner.  Those dog days are now seen as a definite “valley” in the series of peaks and valleys that have made up Britain’s recent experience with letting homes and landlord profit margins.
  2. The Present: What’s more, we’re currently in the midst of one of the great peaks in recent years.  Who would want to hear of that “bull run” coming to an end?  With sites such as Onlet making the experience of letting and dealing with tenants easier than ever before, and the price of homes in the region going steadily upward, it should come as no surprise that, among landlords, the present is a very good time indeed, and hearing it characterized as a “bubble” is unwelcome news, to say the least.  But is it true?
  3. The Future: As stated above, it’s not easy to predict the future.  We can say that markets do have periods in which there are “bubbles,” and boom-bust and back to boom again economies are not altogether uncommon in today’s day and age.  If landlords don’t do enough to make sure that their practices are solvent and sustainable, the risk for a bubble is there.  Then again, tools to prevent such an issue are also present as well.  Hammering out coherent and clear tenancy agreements with tenants and garnering only the best tenants from letting agencies such as Onlet can be a key way to keep your business running despite these “bubble fears.  There’s no future but the one we make—let’s work to make it a sustainable one.
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